The Death of the Click? How AI Search is Changing Traffic and What to Do About It
‘The death of the click’, or zero-click from search, is happening. Perhaps not as dramatically as the term suggests, as we’ll explain in a bit, but major organic traffic changes are incoming. This, as you are likely already aware, all comes down to major changes in search technology—namely, the rollout of Gen AI—and how users are adapting to these changes. In fact, Gartner predicts that traffic from search engines will fall by 25% by 2026 due to increased use of chatbots.
This means that SEO, as we know it, is going to undergo a massive shake-up. But as SEOs, where do we even begin adapting to this change?
Well, it seems, for now anyway, Google won’t be removing clicks completely. We’re seeing them starting to adapt to these changes with the implementation of AI overviews and AI Mode. These, however, don’t necessarily render search engine results pages (SERPs) obsolete. Instead, the way in which users are interacting with SERPs is changing, as opposed to moving away from using search engines altogether and solely using Chatbots.
As it stands, ChatGPT is expected to take 1% of the market share of search this year. Google, in contrast, still sits at around 90%. Despite recent fluctuations, it’s still the dominant search engine. To put this in perspective, as of January 2024, 63% of US search traffic referrals to the top 170 sites have been initiated by Google.
So what is actually going on with the loom of zero-click, how do we prepare, and could we actually see any benefits from this? In this article, we’ll cover what Google is saying about potential traffic changes, the impact these changes could have, and how they can influence making a pivot to GEO (Generative Engine Optimisation). Let’s begin.
What’s Google saying about traffic reduction from AI overviews?
At a high level, we’re seeing conflicting narratives coming from Google regarding traffic disruption as a result of AI overviews. On the one hand, CEO Sundar Pichai is saying that Google recognises there’s an ecosystem to maintain here. But then, you have recent experiments coming out of Google where they’ve stopped showing publishers in certain countries and a statement from an ex-Google Exec saying ‘Giving traffic to publisher sites is kind of a necessary evil’. This may be a sign of what’s going on internally within their business, but for us on the outside, there is no clear narrative coming out from Google.
The other side of it is the concern that Google is not providing any reporting to us as publishers or those facilitating publisher visibility.. It leaves us asking why we haven’t been getting AI overview reports, especially in terms of impressions and clicks. Google is now saying that clicks have reduced, but the quality of those clicks has improved. But where’s the evidence of this? Why isn’t Google giving us the tools to see this for ourselves? We’re going to assume here that the reality is they won’t give us tools to monitor AI overviews, because AI Mode is on the way, and, it’s likely integration into core search.
But circling back to what we mentioned at the beginning, the death of the click could also mean the death of advertising revenues for Google. So they can’t get rid of the click completely because a lot of their revenue depends on search engine traffic.
So what are we, as search marketers and brands, anticipating from all of this? We predict that the click won’t be killed off completely, but the way we track, analyse, and measure will change. We’ll start to prioritise visibility that results in direct clicks, or improve visibility in the same way that above-the-line advertising has been doing for a while. As a result, we may need to collectively consider how we report to our customers on the outcomes of our activities, so they align with these new search metrics.
What metrics do we need to consider when measuring GEO activities?
We’ve covered that the metrics we need to look at when assessing the success of GEO activities need to change. But what exactly will these be? One of the key things we never report to brands is the number of impressions. But as things change, the importance of reporting on visibility will likely come into play, along with or opposed to clicks. So why are impressions going to be a valuable metric when measuring Gen AI search success?
This all comes down to how users change their interaction with Google. We’re likely to see users of traditional search engines giving up on research like they used to. Currently, retrieving information from the web involves clicking on several blue links that appear in a SERP and then forming an opinion based on them. Now, it’s likely that most users are going to resign themselves to the opinion of ‘well, the large language model is doing that work for me’. The way that users form opinions will change alongside this.
This difference at this stage of the funnel is that when these LLMS recommend brands, users won’t feel the need to do any further research. They’ll feel as though the collective consciousness of the web is already there for them, laid bare. It might not result in a click, but it could lead someone to open a new tab and visit that brand’s website. Therefore, the quality of these zero clicks is going to be unparalleled but might actually be attributed to ‘Direct’ traffic.
Zero-clicks presents a new, higher-intent opportunity
Zero-click search isn’t necessarily a bad thing, depending on your business model. But to achieve success with it, we need to change the way we report on visibility. Brands will also need to monitor their other marketing channels to understand how zero-click searches are affecting their businesses.
The thing about all these changes is that they give SEO professionals a seat at the grown-up table. If you can pivot to Generative Engine Optimisation sooner rather than later, the benefits could be enormous. We’re only now talking about brand building in a way we’ve never done before. This all feeds into a larger discussion about readjusting how we talk about discovery in general.
And this train isn’t going to stop. While previous technological changes, like voice search, may not have had a dramatic effect on the search landscape, we’re already seeing that users love chatbots. A large part of the population still hasn’t used one, but the numbers are increasing. And Google knows this; they’re not going to sit on their 10 blue link laurels and let this new technology grow without getting in on the action. They have to do something about it.
At Blue Array, we believe this is a good thing. These models will improve with time. Just think of how much they’ve already improved dramatically over the last six to 12 months. We predict that users will come to depend on them more and more as the technology gets better and the way we all interact with search shifts. There’s just no reason to do your own research anymore when you have Gen AI to provide an answer for your query.
Takeaways
Search is changing at a fundamental level with generative AI, especially if we look at how it’s changing the way users are interacting with search. This technology is unlikely to be a flash in the pan, as research is already showing how easy they are to adopt and use regularly. Search & Communications professionals will need to embrace GEO to be ahead of the curve.
With this new technology, search marketers need to prepare for a reduction in organic traffic. However, on the flip side of this is that the value of inbound traffic will be even better. There needs to be a cultural shift to prioritise visibility and leaning into new methods of reporting, which will require getting stakeholders on board.
Are you looking for support and guidance to prepare for GEO? Reach out to us and let’s have a chat.
Simon Schnieders
In addition to heading up Blue Array as its Founder, Simon also finds time to pass on his business expertise as an angel investor and advisor at ClickMechanic.com, an advisor at Safebuy.org.uk and as a mentor at 500 Startups, Wayra and TechHub.